visegradinsight.eu: What brings the future to Eastern Europe?

There is no real positive outlook: moderately good prospects suggest a slow, gradual deepening of economic relations with the European Union or bottom-up civic emancipation based on a declining Russia and a passive Brussels.

The Polish Res Publica Research Foundation and the American German Marshall Fund (GMF) recently released a report on the next ten-year outlook of the Eastern European countries. The analysis was funded by the Visegrad Fund, and several Central- and Eastern European countries participated in its elaboration, including Hungary.

The analysis focuses on the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. The group of six countries was created by the European Union by the initiative of Poland in 2009. All members are former Soviet member countries, which at the time of the project had close ties with Russia.

The goal of the initiative was to broaden the EU’s neighbourhood policy towards the post-Soviet region of Eastern Europe, thereby establishing closer economic relations, financial support for the countries in the group and assistance in democratic processes.

Closer ties

Three of the six states have all established closer ties with the European Union in recent years: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed an association agreement with Brussels and joined the “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area” (DCFTA) in 2016 and 2017, as well as started visa-free travel with the Union. For Ukraine, the signing of the Association Agreement led to a revolution and the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych in early 2014.

Russia criticised the project because it felt it was a direct intervention in its sphere of interest, while the countries in the group complained about the lack of proper funding because closer integration with Brussels did not compensate them for the loss of Russian relations.

A study published by Visegrad Insight has now looked at how the future of these six countries and their relationship with the European Union could evolve over the next ten years. Out of the four scenarios outlined, two may have very negative prospects for the region and two are considered to be moderately good.

View full article here: https://visegradinsight.eu/a-worrying-vision-eastern-europe/

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